Fri, Feb 27 2026, 4:24 PM
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with ...
Fri, Feb 27 2026, 9:29 AM
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance near...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 4:16 PM
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond...
Thu, Feb 26 2026, 10:37 AM
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging th...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 4:45 PM
In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile sess...
Wed, Feb 25 2026, 9:42 AM
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading rang...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 4:15 PM
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the big...
Tue, Feb 24 2026, 9:31 AM
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?"...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 3:09 PM
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continue...
Mon, Feb 23 2026, 10:51 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly stronger territory, but still well inside the prevailing trading range. There were no standout market move...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 4:44 PM
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would ...
Fri, Feb 20 2026, 9:25 AM
At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for n...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 4:36 PM
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly highe...
Thu, Feb 19 2026, 8:53 AM
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's comme...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 4:22 PM
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a ...
Wed, Feb 18 2026, 11:06 AM
Any time the 10yr Treasury yield approaches--but fails to break--a number ending in .50 or .00, the analytical community is guaranteed to be discussin...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:27 PM
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the ave...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 11:25 AM
At the start of the domestic session, bonds had actually managed to build on last week's impressive gains, even if only by a few bps. That was a bit o...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 4:13 PM
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to sli...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 9:55 AM
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter com...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were ...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 9:07 AM
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a fe...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 4:09 PM
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 9:48 AM
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a f...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 3:39 PM
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the rece...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 9:42 AM
Last Thursday, we discussed the paradox of a rally in the present moment being driven by future data. More specifically, the three downbeat labor mark...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 4:31 PM
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery
Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators c...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 11:02 AM
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the moveme...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 3:31 PM
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/eve...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 9:53 AM
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only n...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 2:59 PM
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was t...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two nota...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 3:57 PM
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
With the big jobs report on hold until next ...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 9:01 AM
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't r...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 3:48 PM
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making ...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 10:38 AM
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 4:14 PM
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Very little changed after this morning's co...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 10:19 AM
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 4:36 PM
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damag...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 10:03 AM
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodol...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 4:37 PM
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressur...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 9:51 AM
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clear...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 4:16 PM
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The state...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, ...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 8:37 AM
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals. One of the most common catalys...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:59 PM
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
It was a relatively quiet Monday for the bond market, but not a b...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 9:05 AM
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a r...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 4:45 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week
Bonds put in a decent day on Friday, ultimately getting back into p...
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